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Good day forex trading koalas,

it is the weekend again and now is the time to reflect on our past performance.

In the last review, we noted that the EUR/USD held it’s ground despite a number of negative issues. This was probably due to the greater number of negative data streaming out from the US. Investors were starting to question how robust the recovery of the US economy is.

From a technical point of view, the 1.3 line will probably be a center of activity as the market consolidates and determine it’s next course of action.



Look at the EUR/USD daily chart, the bullish moment is a pretty strong one for the month of July.

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Early week saw the bullish momentum continuing on. Most of the economic data from the Euro Zone were good and this brought sentiments up as investors felt that the worst is probably over. Although the US CB Consumer Confidence came out worst then expected, the market only suffered a temporary dip before the bullish climb resumed.

Towards the midweek, the EUR/USD continued to range around the 1.3 line. Over at the Euro Zone, the German Prelim CPI came just as expected. On the contrary, the US releases were generally worst than expected. The core durable goods orders were down and it caused investors to be concerned about the US economy.

As the end of the week approached, continued positive data from the Euro Zone brought the EUR/USD up. The German unemployment change indicated a drop of unemployment in Germany and this was welcomed by the investors. Having said so, we saw a new round of strikes in Greece as truck drivers protest against the government plans to open up the freight industry. This is inevitable as this was part of the condition upon accepting the loan package from the EU / IMF. The protest caused shortages of fuel and tourism is affected. We need to remember that the Euro Zone crisis is not over yet.

On Friday, we received a double blow as the US Advance GDP and the German Retail Sales came out worst than expected. This brought back risk aversion causing the day to end bearish.

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I read a report with regards to the cooling of the US economy. As the jobs market continued to be depressed, big ticket spending will continue to be scarce and hence economic stimulation will be low. Once again the US continues to face challenges including the massive deficit. More and more economic experts are warning that we may be hitting past the point of no return which is definite default of the US.

Having said so, the Euro Zone is not without it’s problems. With the recent blessings of numerous economic data, sentiments are good and hence no one rains on the party. Now if any adverse event happens, the market may just fall like stumbling blocks.

From a technical point of view, we face two interesting factors now.


The 1.3 line may continue to remain as a center of activity and make the forecast of direction difficult.
The 200 EMA of the EUR/USD daily chart lies just above the current price action. Historically, the price often react with the EMA. Now the tricky part is if the EMA will function as a resistance or a clear break will result suggesting continued bullish momentum.
Next week brings us numerous important data releases including the Euro minimum bid rate and the crazy margin call event US non farm payroll. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

If you are on Facebook, i urge you to joinTheGeekKnows.com page. Discussions on forex concepts, ideas and trades can be found there. It is a helpful community page for forex that i created and it has over 500 participants now

Caution is advised. Trade safely.